If a real exchange rate one would expect to appreciate depreciates , one would also expect china to become more competitive in world markets 如果人们预期会上升的实际汇率不升反降，那么人们也就会认为，中国在国际市场上将变得更有竞争力。
Before we start , there three questions need to be clear . after first , how to judge the real exchange rate regime of east asia 要回答本文所提出的的两个问题,又涉及到以下几个关键问题:第一、如何来判断危机之后东亚各国的实际汇率安排
As a core of foreign exchange theories , equilibrium exchange rate is the main objective criterion to justify whether misalignment has appeared to the real exchange rate 作为汇率理论的核心问题之一，均衡汇率是判断实际汇率水平是否失调的主要客观依据。
Unable disposing of deflation , real exchange rate appreciating , interest ascending and fiscal policy getting into a dilemma are this regime " s disadvantages 其弊端主要体现在如下四个方面：无法应对通货紧缩，实际汇率高估，利率被迫上扬，财政政策陷入两难。
Finally , these estimated models are used to forecast rmb ' s real exchange rate . out - of - sample forecasts is extend to forward six steps 最后，在这些被估计出来的模型的基础上对人民币实际汇率进行向前六步的样本外预测分析，并与随机游走模型的预测能力相比较。
Based on the theory of equilibrate real exchange rate , this paper holds that the exchange rate of rmb should be more flexible to suit to shocks in the process of transition 摘要从均衡实际汇率理论分析汇率制度，认为人民币汇率应更加弹性，以适应转轨过程中的经济冲击。
The detailed study by kaminsky et al shows that the best indicator of a crisis within the next 24 months is the real exchange rate relative to a trend Kaminsky等人的研究也表明： 24个月内最好的货币危机预警指标就是实际汇率与其一般均衡趋势的偏离，即实际汇率失调的水平。
A studyby the london business school ? , with abn amro , a dutch bank , found that real exchange rates in 17countries moved by less than an average of 0 . 2 % a year over theperiod 1900 - 2006 伦敦商学院，荷兰银行同德意志银行的一项联合研究发现1900 2006年间17国的真实汇率年度变化平均数低于0 . 2 % 。
In the first chapter , we summarize investigation theories and methods on the equilibrium real exchange rate of rmb in our country and put forward the aim and the methods used in this paper 本文第一章首先总结了目前国内外有关我国人民币均衡实际汇率方面的研究理论和研究方法,并提出本文的研究目的和基本方法。
