Firstly , based on the development history and characteristics of stock market the thesis looked back the development history and characteristics of every stage of chinese stockjobbers laid stress on the business development and risk management . secondly , the thesis analyzed the existing comprehensive evaluation method and choosed or model of data envelopment analysis as evaluation model . then we analyzed the deficiency of ( 7r model and established two new model - average value model , go model and its corresponding projection model - which were used to evaluating and sequencing fourteen comprehensive stockjobbers and draw a conclusion based on computation result of the three models 本文首先以我国证券市场发展历史及特点为基础，回顾我国证券公司发展历程及各阶段经营特点，主要分析证券公司业务发展和风险管理状况；其次，对证券公司现有评价方法进行研究，选择数据包络分析( dea )的c _ 2r模型作为对证券公司进行评价的数学模型，针对c _ 2r模型排序时存在的并列第一和零权重问题，提出均值模型、 g _ 0模型及相应的投影模型，并对三种模型的计算复杂度进行了讨论；第三，选择14家综合类证券公司进行实证研究并对三种模型的计算结果进行了对比分析；最后，简要总结2001年证券市场状况并对证券公司今后面临的机遇和挑战进行了分析。
In the fundamental research part , first taking the economical growth , the economical development and the economical point of growth theories as the foundation , analyzed the economical growth and the economical development connotation , embarked from the product , analyzes and has limited the economical point of growth and the new economical point of growth concept and the characteristic 第二章在剖析经济增长与经济发展内涵的基础上,重新界定了新经济增长点的内涵,提出了新经济增长点的测度阈值模型体系,并详细分析了新经济增长点的形成之源。
In the second chapter , the concept of value multiple is introduced in details and a new valuation model is given at the end of this chapter . an important conclusion is drown through data analysis in american capital market in the chapter three : there is a strong relativity between the value multiple and the stock price . in the next chapter , we analyze those factors that they can weaken the effect of value multiple when we use it to judge the intrinsic value of securities in our country and countermeasures ^ against those factors 本文第一章主要就证券价值分析的一般原理、常用方法以及存在的问题进行了探讨；第二章主要就价值倍数法的理论基础、计算公式进行阐述和推导，并最终构建了基于价值倍数概念上的估值模型；第三章主要通过美国资本市场的数据对价值倍数与股票价格之间的关系进行了探讨，最后得出二者之间为正相关的结论；第四章主要就我国证券市场上影响价值倍数运用的主要因素以及对策进行探讨，并通过实例演示证明价值倍数模型在我国证券市场运用的有效性；第五章对整个研究过程进行了总结，并就其中存在的问题提出了改进的思路以及进一步研究的方向。
There are many valuation models such as cdf , eva model , p / e model and p / b model etc . there is one common character of these models that is the input data of these model is all financial information . however , financial analyst usually estimated different value of the same stock using different models and the estimated value was different from the actual market price . what is the reason lead to this result 各种股权估值模型都有一个共同的特点,即模型的输入变量为公司财务信息,但根据不同的模型,证券分析师估出的股票价值都不一样,而且跟市场实际价格往往也有很大的差距,那是什么样的原因导致这种差距呢
Through the above researches , such conclusions were drawn that in the course of fitting the semivariogram of the yearly annual mean rice water sensitivity index in yunnan , the fitting precision of ordinary kriging spherecial model is better than others ; range at the direction of 80 . 5 degree is outstanding than others ; as for the precision of interpolation , ordinary kriging spherecial model is higher than others 研究表明：云南水稻多年平均水分敏感指标变异函数以普通克里金球状模型拟合最优、 80 . 5度方向变程最大、插值模型以普通克里金球状模型插值精度较高。
This paper combined the study of predecessor and use pert predicted method and technology of monte - carlo simulation to get the probability distribution of project ' s random npv , and to use the theory of expected utility to get expected utility value for decision - making to make decision of project 本文结合前人的研究，利用pert预测法和蒙特卡洛模拟法，建立了项目的随机净现值模型。通过分析净现值的概率分布，利用期望效用理论得出决策者的期望效用值，对项目作出决策。
And then , it especially introduces the theoretical basis of pert predicted method and the technology of monte - carlo simulation , it ascertain the random variables of the model by analysing the uncertainty factors of economic effect index . and it brings forward random npv model in the light of basic npv model . using the theory of expected utility to evaluate the risk of project by the probability distribution of project ' s npv 通过分析影响项目经济效益指标的不确定性因素，确定了模型的随机变量；根据基本净现值模型提出了随机净现值模型；通过项目净现值的概率分布运用期望效用理论对项目的风险进行评价。
The sprt was used to test error residual matrix between estimated matrix and measured matrix . based on the test result , it need to validate single parameter if necessary . finally , the on - line run status of the system and its parameters that whether natural or not are judged through these processes 通过锅炉专家制定的试验设计方案得到了有效的实验数据,利用最值模型以及向量排序模型筛选出记忆矩阵,然后通过记忆矩阵对观测矩阵进行实时训练得到预测矩阵,再利用sprt方法对预测矩阵与观测矩阵的残差矩阵进行检验,对检验结果判断,如有必要需对单参数进行验证,最终通过这个过程判断出系统及各个参数在线运行的稳定性。
There is another approach . utilizing the basic theory of return and risk and the main methodologies and models of asset valuation , we can study the implied risk premium from the current share prices by incorporating stock analysts " forecast on companies " earnings and growth . by comparing the implied risk premium with the actual risk level of the particular investment , we can decide better whether its valuation is fair 在主要投资价值分析方法和分析模型基础上，本文换了一个角度，从风险收益基础理论出发，研究利用更符合实际的三阶段估值模型，结合证券分析师对企业赢利和未来增长的估计，测算证券定价背后隐含的风险回报水平，通过考察风险补偿率是否与该投资面临的风险水平相匹配，来更好的解决证券定价合理评判这个问题。
In the first chapter , after having introduced the concept of entropy theory and its development in order , i have emphasized to discuss the deduction from analysis . based on the above conclusions , i have put forward a model of entropy of stock market in order to measure the level of chaos of stock market 论文第一章主要介绍了熵理论的基本概念、意义和发展，着重论述了将熵理论引入到中国证券市场的研究中所得出的结论，在此基础上提出证券市场的熵值模型以度量系统的无序度。
