And then , on the basis of analyzing the effect of changes of real effective exchange rate on our country ' s trade balance , this paper mainly aims at assessing the effect of real effective exchange rate by means of combining qualitative methods and quantitative methods 本文首先对相关的理论、研究文献做了简要回顾，并在此基础上，采取了定性和定量相结合的分析方法，重点分析了人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国贸易收支的影响。
Secondly , the paper establishes the conintegration equation of rmb ' s real effective exchange rate and estimates the equilibrium exchange rate using hodrick - prscott filter method . according to equilibrium exchange rate estimated , the paper analyzes the disequilibrium degree of rmb ' s exchange rate 其次，建立决定人民币实际有效汇率的协整方程，并用h ? p滤波方法测算出人民币均衡汇率，并以此为参照，评估人民币汇率历年来的失衡情况。
At last , the paper does as the former method to organize the real effective exchange rate index , what ’ s more , the index shows the process and the trend of the effective exchange rate , the trend indicate : generally speaking , rmb effective exchange rate is stable and have a small increasing trend 在第四章中,根据第三章所选定的方法,根据1994年第一季度到2005年第一季度各季度的数据,对人民币名义有效汇率指数和实际有效汇率指数进行了具体的测算,
Currently we may make rmb appreciate so as to reduce price of import goods for promoting import . on the other hand , rmb appreciation may restrain the tendency of price rising for adjusting real effective exchange rate and trade balance 目前可考虑让人民币适度升值，有效降低进口商品的物价水平，促进进口进而实现贸易收支的平衡发展，还可以减少外汇占款，从而使货币供应量下降来达到控制目前的物价上涨趋势的目的，进而降低整体的消费物价水平来调节人民币实际有效汇率和进出口贸易收支水平。
