Time series method is a newly - developed quantitative method for prediction and yields satisfactory results in the analysis of economic time series in which the involved factors are too many and the relationships between them are too complicated , leading to the application of theory - based quantitative predicting methods unworkable 时间序列分析方法是最近发展起来的定量预测方法，它特别适用于经济时间序列，因为经济现象涉及因素较多，关系又比较复杂，因此难以用量化的唯理模型进行预测分析。
Based on jean piaget " s theory of cognition development and a . c . bblrotckiih " s theo - ry of recent developental area , this paper intends to combine the author " s many years " teaching experience to explore students " characteristics and rules in different developmen - tal stage , to understand the creative process of recent developmental area by using the con - cent of assimilation , accommodation and equilibrium , and to construct the creative patlern of recent developmental area from congnition development 基于这一认识，本文以皮亚杰认知发展的理论和维果茨基的最近发展区的理论为出发点，结合本人多年的教学实践，探讨学生在各个发展阶段的特点和规律，并运用同化、顺应和平衡的概念来理解最近发展区的创造过程，从认知发展机制上讨论构建最近发展区的三种模式及这三种模式在儿童认知发展中的重要作用。
