This paper attempts to explore how to measure rmb exchange rate volatility and the risk management especially rmb exchange rate against euro , yen , ponder , swiss francs and some others main currency except dollar 本文主要研究人民币汇率波动风险的度量及其管理，尤其是人民币对除美元以外的其它主要货币的汇率波动风险。
Demonstration results has proved that cointegration analysis is a good way to describe and forecast exchange rate and artificial neural network can catch the nonlinear factors of exchange rate fluctuation 实证结果说明协整分析技术是对当今汇率行为进行描述和预测的有效方法，人工神经网络能够很好的把握汇率波动中的非线性因素。
This paper introduces two time - series models - arma model and arch model , which are adapt to the fluctuation forecast . i utilize the game theory and the chaos theory in the study of exchange rate fluctuation 继之，本文将博弈论、混沌理论等理论引入汇率波动问题研究之中，研究了资本流动和汇率波动的博弈问题和汇率决定之混沌模型。
It is quite consultable for china to understand and deal with the fluctuation in the international foreign exchange market , especially after china entering into wto . linxiangfa ( finance ) directed by pro wuhaihua and pro huyanjing 本文较系统地研究了汇率波动的关键问题，对于我国加入wto以后的宏观金融政策之制订与实施具有一定的理论价值与现实指导意义。
However , there are also several points of agreement , which actually develop and perfect the whole theory system constantly . the effects of dollarization , as well as implication for policy are discussed in chapter four 美元化会使货币政策的独立性和有效性受到影响，汇率波动频繁，政府财政税基遭到削弱等等，这对各国传统的宏观经济政策提出了严峻的挑战。
The exchange fluctuation involves many questions . the theory of exchange rate determination is the foundation of it . there have been many research results in exchange rate determination , including traditional theories and modern monetarist models 从理论上讲，汇率决定理论是研究汇率波动问题的基础，主要有传统的汇率决定理论和现代货币主义汇率决定模型之分。
