Whereafter , based on the analysis on the flood influence for traffic lines , the research is centered on the following parts : firstly , the destroying modes , reasons and mechanism of flooded lines are discussed , and the frameworks and countermeasures of preventing and controlling hazards system are put forward ; secondly , the ways of region forecasting for the landslide are analyzed and the automation of landslide forecast for certain site through visual programming is realized . furthermore , the function of dynamic segmentation in arc view is made use of to realize the forecast result ' s visualization ; thirdly , the reasons and patterns of roadbed subsidence are discussed and the methods of forecasting subsidence based on the gm ( 1 , 1 ) model are put forward . then the applications of the arcview software and its extended module on the study of roadbed subsidence are debates upon ; fourthly , an analysis on the sources of flood for traffic lines , which situate in the reservoir coverage area , is given 接着，论文探讨了山区交通线路灾害的特点、分类、时间和空间分布规律以及灾害的防治原则和对策等；然后，以洪水灾害对交通线路的毁坏为主线，重点研究和分析了以下几个问题：第一，探讨了洪水对交通线路的破坏方式，水毁原因以及水毁机理，并提出了交通线路水毁防御系统框架和对策；第二，分析了雨季边坡塌方灾害的区段预测方法；通过可视化编程，编制了雨季边坡塌方灾害的工点预报程序，并结合arcview实现了预测结果的可视化；第三，对路基沉陷原因和模式进行了分析，并提出利用gm ( 1 ， 1 )模型对路基沉陷区进行分析和预测，最后论述了arcview软件及其扩展模块在沉陷区研究分析中的应用；第四，对汛期库区线路灾害的原因进行了分析，并探讨了利用数量化理论对路基防护工程抗洪能力进行预测的意义；第五，提出从风险的角度对交通线路的防灾减灾进行管理，对风险估计的相关问题进行了论述，并探讨了交通线路水害危险区段的划分问题。
The comprehensive analysis concerning slope 6 # is finished , including building geological model , selecting the analyzing method , obtaining the calculation parameters , and post process about simulation results . the conclusions , especially , which the simulation about the partial landslide ' s impacting range and the deformation failure movement progress of slope 6 # , show us a complete cognition and impression of slope evolvement . during this progress , two groups of analysis of software for slope stability with better interface and practicability , strong function and manipulability are used ( ansys7 . 1 and 3dec ) 再现了研究区的三种变形破坏模式；实现了6 #山梁节理岩体高边坡整体稳定性和局部塌方影响范围的模拟分析；运用离散元对6 #山梁可能的变形破坏方式进行了全过程动态仿真模拟；分析中，地质调查与室内分析的结合、局部塌方与整体稳定性的结合、现状模拟与过程模拟的结合，充分体现了工程地质分析中定性与定量相结合的思维方法，使我们对6 #山梁节理岩体高边坡的变形破坏机制和过程有了一个较完整的认识。
