Simulated annealing algorithm is a kind of heuristic monte carlo method . in the course of solve the optimum problem , it conquer the blindfold searching mechanism of normal monte carlo method , and based on a appointed theory to guides search , so it can ensure a successful search 模拟退火方法是一种启发式蒙特卡罗法，在解决优化的问题中，它克服了常规蒙特卡罗方法盲目的随机搜索机制，而是在一定的理论指导下搜索，故能保证搜索成功。
Because the surface source rock are high thermal evolution and low residual organic matter abundance , based on correcting the organic matter abundance pyrolysis loss and surface weathering loss , the authors estimate the hydrocarbon - generation intensity of source rock using the monte carlo technique 针对地表烃源岩样品具有高热演化、低丰度的地化特征，在有机质丰度的热解损失和地表风化损失校正基础上，采用蒙特卡罗法模拟计算烃源岩生烃强度。
After discussing the limitation of the volume method for the estimation of the methane resource in detail , the principle of the mc method for the estimation of the methane resource is researched and analyzed thoroughly , and the methane resource of gas hydrate area in mackenzie delta is calculated as an example 对采用蒙特卡罗法估算甲烷资源量的原理进行了分析和探讨，并以麦肯齐三角洲和南海海域水合物为例，计算了水合物赋存区的甲烷资源量。
Secondly , based on detailed depiction and analysis on the optimization of inventory , including analysis the demands of material and the character of stock , together with the situation of electric wire & cable company , ltd . , two inventory optimizing models are developed , with the aid of liner and random optimization method - monte carle method 然后在分析企业原材料需求和库存特点的基础上，根据企业的实际情况，建立了基于线性需求的库存优化模型和基于随机需求的库存优化模型? ?蒙特卡罗法，代入企业各项库存参数进行实证，并比较了两种模型的各自的优缺点。
After analyzed the defaults of the fault dictionary method , several techniques to enhance the capability of the d . c . fault dictionary are presented . these include 1 ) using monte carlo analysis to get the node voltage tolerance , 2 ) using bayesian decision theory to direct the fuzzy set dividing , 3 ) selecting nodes by the fuzzy sets , 4 ) using the fault tree to diagnose the circuit ' s fault with varied sum of nodes 文中分析了字典法存在的问题，提出了改进方法，其中包括：用蒙特卡罗法求各节点电压的容差域；用贝叶斯决策理论来指导模糊集划分；以模糊集为特征进行节点优选；依故障诊断树进行变节点诊断。
The numerical methods and the monte carlo method for thin - walled box girders are studied systematically . the one - dimensional stochastic finite element method for box - girders is proposed , and applied to the reliability analysis successfully . the main contributions of the thesis are as follows : 1 对薄壁箱梁结构随机分析的数值计算理论和蒙特卡罗法进行深入研究，提出了基于一维离散有限元法的薄壁箱梁随机分析理论，对薄壁箱梁结构的可靠度进行了分析和计算。
In the structure and mechanism reliability analysis , the monte - carlo method , the importance sampling method and the extended importance sampling method which is presented in this paper are applied into the t russ structure , the box structure , the shaft structure and the flexible four - linkage mechanism 无人战斗机机体可靠性分析是对无人战斗机上的结构、机构(桁架结构、盒式结构、转轴结构以及四连杆机构等这些最基本的结构、机构型式)进行可靠性分析。分析时采用蒙特卡罗法、重要抽样法以及本文提出的扩展重要抽样法。
Firstly , the degree of the development of project management and risk management , the explanation of the importance of project risk management , and the expatiation of the theory and method of project schedule plan , the status of project schedule risk evaluation and the development and application of simulation technique are introduced in this paper . then the advantages and disadvantages of simulation technique and program evaluation and review technique for evaluating the schedule risk of project are apart listed in the paper , and that the theory and method of monte carlo method is discussed emphatically in the paper . finally the method for evaluating the schedule risk of project by creating monte carlo simulation model with the software excel is presented in the paper , which includes modeling , simulating , counting , testing and evaluating , and makes the complex and hard quantitative analysis work - risk evaluation easy and convenient , the result of evaluation more precise and credible 本文首先介绍项目管理和风险管理的发展状况，说明项目风险管理的重要性，阐述项目进度计划的理论和方法、项目进度风险评价的现状以及模拟技术的发展和应用，然后对比分析模拟法和计划评审技术在评价项目进度风险时的优劣，并着重探讨用蒙特卡罗法进行风险评价的理论和方法，最后提出在计算机软件excel上建立蒙特卡罗模拟模型对项目的进度风险进行评价的思路和模型，并在excel上建立一套完整的进行项目进度风险评价的实现步骤和方法，包括建模、模拟、统计、检验和评价，使风险评价这一复杂困难的定量分析工作变得简单方便，而且使其结果更加准确可靠。
Based on the theory of measurement and statistical estimate , this paper furnish three kinds of estimate algorithms : median estimate ( me ) , 3 a confidence distance estimate ( 3 a cde ) and confidence distance estimate based on bayes ( cdebb ) . the monte carlo digital simulations are applied on the me , 3 a cde and cdebb with the random normal samples & outlier samples 论文运用测度论和估计理论，探索了可应用于引信决策的中位数估计、 “ 3 ”置信距离估计和基于bayes的置信距离估计三种稳健估计算法，并结合构造的随机正常值样本、随机异常值样本，用蒙特卡罗法分别对该三种算法进行了数字仿真验证。
According to working process of terminal - sensitive projectile using capturing rule of detector , on the basis of vulnerability analysis to self - mechanized gun , a model of injuring target about terminal - sensitive projectile is established in this paper . and on the basis of it , using monte - carlo method , numerical simulating computation is done . according to result analysis , the maximum sensitive factor of terminal - sensitive projectile ' s performance is found , the scientific foundations supplied for determining structural parameter and performance parameter of terminal - sensitive projectile are provided 在此基础上，根据末敏弹工作过程和探测器采用的捕获准则，在对自行火炮进行易损分析基础上，建立了末敏弹毁伤目标模型，并在此基础上，采用了蒙特卡罗法进行大量的数值模拟计算，对结果进行分析，找出了影响末敏弹的最敏感因素，为末敏弹结构参数、性能参数的优化提供了依据。
