By employing vector error correction model and testing the responses of the estimated model to the structural shocks , this paper has identified the sources of the recurrent fluctuations in chinese economy and has assessed the empirical validity of the mundell - flaming model 本文基于向量误差修正模型，通过检验经济系统对各种结构冲击的响应，来评估蒙代尔弗莱明模型对中国经济发展变化的预测能力，进而判断蒙代尔弗莱明模型在中国的适用性。
The mundell - flemming model is a theory which researches the efficiency of the financial policy and the monetary policy under different exchange rate systems , it comes to the conclusion that the effect of stabilization policy is tightly related to the international capital mobility and exchange rate system 蒙代尔-弗莱明模型是研究在不同汇率制度下财政货币政策的有效性问题的理论，其结论是稳定政策的效果是与国际资本的流动程度和汇率制度紧密相联。
Main content : the 1st chapter introduces what is mundell - flemming model ( m - f model ) . in the 1st part , we will know that mundell and flemming deduced the m - f model by expanding the is - lm model to the open economic condition , and studied the relationship of exchange rate system and micro - economic policies 蒙代尔( 1963 )和弗莱明( 1962 )通过将封闭经济条件下的is - lm模型扩展到开放经济体系之中,研究了开放经济条件下汇率制度与宏观经济政策的相互关系及效应。
The speakers were prof . edward c . prescott , 2004 nobel laureate in economic sciences ; prof . robert a . mundell , 1999 nobel laureate in economic sciences ; prof . sir james a . mirrlees , 1996 nobel laureate in economic sciences ; prof . alberto f . alesina and prof . robert j . barro from harvard university ; and prof . edmund s . phelps from columbia university 他们包括二零零四年诺贝尔经济学奖得主普利斯克特教授、一九九九年诺贝尔经济学奖得主蒙代尔教授、一九九六年诺贝尔经济学奖得主莫理斯爵士、哈佛大学艾尔西纳教授、哈佛大学巴罗教授及哥伦比亚大学费尔普斯教授。
The thesis is made up of three parts : first part , the euro pattern of single currency union . the author starts from " a theory of optimum currency areas " and a cost - income analysis of joining optimum currency area , providing a theoretical background for the euro pattern . then with the practice of european monetary integration , the paper fazes on the innovation of euro pattern to international monetary system 首先阐述欧元模式的理论基础：蒙代尔等人的最优货币区理论以及90年代以来对加入货币区的成本和收益的分析；然后，结合欧洲货币一体化的实践，文章重点分析欧元模式对国际货币制度的创新之处。
Basing on the traditional m - f model and combining the situation of china , we introduce a modification of the m - f model which is more closed to chinese economic environment , and conclude that , in this occasion , our monetary policy is lack of efficiency , while the financial policy is more effective under the relative fixed - exchange rate system and strong capital control 本文根据传统的蒙代尔?弗莱明模型理论，结合中国国情，引入了更符合中国经济环境的m ? f修正模型，通过模型的理论推导，认为在相对固定的汇率制度和较强的资本管制条件下，我国货币政策效率较低，而财政政策效率较强。
The analysis starts from the introduction of the theory of exchange rates and the relevant economic factors that affect exchange rates . the analysis is based on the following theories : the theory of macro - stabilization policy in open economy , the mundell - fleming model , originated by professor robert a mundell of the department of economics columbia university , who also founded the theory of the optimum currency areas ; another theory is the trilemma by paul krugman . it is concluded that the current stable exchange regime serves as an important guarantee for the fast economic development in china 面对“人民币是否应该升值”这个国内外经济界讨论的热点，本文从汇率决定理论及影响汇率制度的相关经济因素出发，引用了最优货币区域理论的首创者、美国哥伦比亚大学经济系教授罗伯特? a ?蒙代尔的开放条件下宏观稳定政策的理论“蒙代尔?弗莱明模型”以及克鲁格曼的“三元悖论”等理论来探讨人民币汇率制度的选择及未来汇率体制的发展目标和前景，明确了目前稳定的人民币汇率体制是促进我国经济高速发展的重要保证。
Chapter 2 elaborates two international leading theories on fdi and foreign trade development , namely , trade and investment substitution theory of mundell and trade and investment supplement theory of kojima kiyoshi . moreover , the theories are extendedly applied in the field of introduction of fdi and foreign trade development in the developing countries , and a brief estimation is made 第二章详细考察了国际上关于外商直接投资和对外贸易发展的两个主要理论，即蒙代尔的贸易与投资替代论和小岛清的贸易和投资互补论，进而将其扩展应用到发展中国家引进fdi与对外贸易发展领域，并进行了简要的评价。
Professor mundell has been an adviser to a number of international agencies and organizations including the united nations , the international monetary fund , the world bank , the european commission , and several governments in latin america and europe , the federal reserve board , the us treasury and the government of canada 蒙代尔教授曾任许多国际机构及组织的顾问，包括联合国、国际货币基金会、世界银行、欧洲委员会、拉丁美洲及欧洲国家的政府、美国联邦储备局、美国财政部，及加拿大政府。
