This paper , according to military aircraft development characteristic , presents estimate method of military aircraft development and requirement , and the work mode in predevelopment stage 本文的主要工作是根据军用飞机研制特点，对于军用飞机发展的需求预测方法、预研工作模式进行研究。
2 ) the methods of demand forecast studys deeply , which will instruct some cities in the aspect of the od survey and forecast . 3 ) the investigating and analysis in zigong is detailed , scientific and easy to put into practice 2 )需求预测方法阐述深入，将对当前一些城市在od调查与预测上无从着手有指导意义； 3 )自贡市的调查与分析比较详细，具有科学性与实践性。
Using the order - up - to ( out ) method and two demand forecasting patterns , that are exponential smoothing forecasting and moving average forecasting , we give the frequency response plot and the noise bandwidth figure with the help of the system control tool of matlab . we show that information sharing helps to reduce the bullwhip effect , especially at higher levels in the chain . however , the bullwhip effect problem is not completely eliminated and it still increases as one moves up the chain 本文的重点内容就是用控制论的理论和方法来研究牛鞭效应,应用补充到目标库存策略( out )和两种不同的需求预测方法,即指数平衡预测法和移动平均数预测法,用matlab的系统控制工具箱作为分析工具,分别给出了信息共享情况下和无信息共享情况下的频率响应图和带宽比较图,证明了信息共享能够减弱牛鞭效应,尤其是在供应链的高级阶段,但牛鞭效应并不能完全消除,仍旧随着供应链阶段的上升而增加。
The paper , based on the analysis on the contents and characteristics of emergency material requirement , adopts relative theories and methods of artificial intelligence , puts forward predictive method of emergency material requirement based on case - based reasoning ( cbr ) , and works out fuzzy reasoning model of case and reasoning procedure . the method above is adopted to describe the situation and deal with the information from the emergency , which can help to get the result of emergency material requirement . what ’ s more , the forecast result includes the quantity requirement , quality requirement and structure requirement of material , which conquers the subjectivity and 文章在分析应急物资需求内容与特点的基础上,运用人工智能中的案例推理技术,提出了基于案例推理( cbr )的应急物资需求预测方法,给出了案例的模糊推理模型和推理过程,该方法通过利用已有突发事件中情景描述信息和应对处理描述信息,得到突发事件发生后物资需求预测结果,预测结果中不仅包含物资的数量需求,而且还包含物资的质量需求和结构需求,克服了单纯依靠经验判断进行物资需求预测的主观性和盲目性,创新了应急物资需求预测方法。
