7 . 1 summarized the conclusion and pionted out the shortage of my studies . through a wholesome analysis , i got a conclusion ; the price of dushanzi petrochemical products is predictable and in the same time we can make a quantitive prediction and establish quantitive prediction model . but there are a lot of shortage in my studies because time is tight , the tusk is heavy , a lot of factors have to be ignored , the datas are not enough and the my capability of research is limited . in the end 第七，综述研究的结论并指出研究的不足。通过全文的分析研究，得出结论:独山子化工产品价格可预测，并且可以定量预测，建立定量预测模型。但是，由于时间紧任务重，舍弃的因素多，搜集的资料、研究水平有限，研究的结果还存在很多不足，并指出改进的方向。
The integrated identification of fractures with the bpo interpretation of logs and the 3d seismic fracture interpretation technology were used to predict the development and distribution rules of fractures in ve rtical and plane directions of mesozoic reservoirs of baigezhuang region . the plane distribution of the stress fields of different major oil reservoirs determined with finite element numerical simulation provides a theoretical foundation for the research of the plane distribution of the fracture . thus , the quantitative prediction of the tectonic fractures is possible 本文应用测井参数的bp神经网络裂缝综合识别方法、三维地震裂缝检测技术，预测了柏各庄地区中生界储层平面或纵向上裂缝的发育分布及规律；并用有限元法数值模拟技术展示出不同主力油层的平面古应力状态，为研究裂缝的平面分布规律提供了理论依据；在此基础上，依据岩石破裂准则进行了构造裂缝定量预测。
( 2 ) assessment of relative sea - level rise rate in the future in the region of the radiate sand ridges according to the assessment of global sea - level rise in the coming century by ipcc ( 2001 ) report , and the rate of subsidence in the region of radiate sand ridges , the relative sea - level rise in the coming century was forecasted quantitatively ( 2 )辐射沙洲区未来的海面上升速率预测引用ipcc2001年评估报告中对未来100年全球绝对海面上升速率的评估并结合辐射沙洲区地面沉降速率和相对海面变化状况对辐射沙洲区未来100年内的相对海面变化做了定量预测。
The inland hillslope research methods are dominated by qualitative analysis and statistic analysis , therefore , much more studies need to be made to the hillslope water and soil mechanisms and processes , the prediction and evaluation of plane source pollution resulting from nutrient loss , the quantitative prediction model of hillslope water and soil loss and the interaction between the control measures and hillslops 国内对坡面的研究方法以定性和统计分析为主，在坡面水土流失机理及过程，养分流失所造成的面源污染的预测及评价，坡面流失定量预测模型以及控制措施与坡面的相互作用等方面仍需作进一步研究。
On the basis of qualitative analysis , this chapter has carried out quantitative forecast to the amount of chinese monitor markets in 2003 to 2007 years and the speed of growth in next 5 years , and forecasts the structure of monitor own brand and oem market , and has further carried out quantitative forecast to the structure of products , channel , region , vertical market and parallel market 在定性分析的基础上，本章对2003 2007年中国显示器市场的总量及未来5年的增长速度进行了定量预测，并对显示器自有品牌和oem市场的结构进行了预测，进一步对产品、渠道、区域、垂直市场和平行市场的结构进行了定量预测。
In the paper , according to the relation between the regional economy system and traffic system the macrocosmic forecasting model of the yrd regional general traffic flow is built . the flow includes tendency traffic stream and induced traffic stream . according as the above forecasting methods and the regional traffic forecasting model the development of the yrd region economy , population and the tendency traffic flow are quantitatively forecasted by the testing data 并根据交通系统和社会经济系统互相影响的关系，构建了长江三角洲区域综合交通流量宏观预测模型(趋势交通流和诱增交通流) ，利用上述预测方法和宏观预测模型结合调研数据对长江三角洲区域的经济、人口以及趋势交通流量进行了宏观定量预测，随长江三角洲区域综合交通网络体系研究后提出了区域间交通流量模拟“四阶段”定量预测模型。
Firstly , the parameters controlling ductile crack growth are gotten from the resistance curve result of standard 3 point bending specimen , then the resistance curves of the tension specimen for the welded joint with different strength mis - matching are predicted based on the cell model 首先由标准三点弯曲试件的阻力曲线，得出反映材料微观损伤的特殊单元模型控制参量，再根据该参量对不同接头强度匹配下双边缺口拉伸试件的阻力曲线进行了定量预测，其结果与试验结果相当吻合。
This paper recommends the character and present condition of eastern asian container shipping market , after recommending the present condition of international container shipping market briefly . next according to the shipping quantity of the past years , building a model to forecast the shipping quantity of the next years 本文在简要地介绍了国际集装箱运输市场的现状后，介绍了东亚集装箱运输市场的现状及特点，紧接着根据我国历年的中日航线集装箱运量，建立模型对下一年的集装箱运量进行了定量预测。
Use of time sequence method to predict the future growth trend of the fixed network telecom industry revenue ; contrasting the fixed telephone development of town and village , adopting logistic growth curve econometrics method to analyze three development stages of chinese village fixed telephone market ; draw a conclusion that the chinese village fixed telephone has a huge development potential ; and predict the development trend of village fixed network telecom in several years ; adopting logistic growth curve method to calculate and analyze internet business growth stage ; while studying internet development potential , we draw a conclusion that internet business also have a good growth foreground , and give a quantitative predict of internet industry development 运用时间序列外推法预测未来固网电信业收入增长趋势;通过城镇与农村固定电话发展对比,采用logistic成长曲线计量经济方法分析了中国农村固定电话市场发展的三个阶段,认为中国农村固定电话处于高速发展的中期,具很大的发展潜力,并定量预测出未来中国农村固话发展趋势;在研究互联网及宽带接入业务发展潜力时,同样采用logistic成长曲线计量方法,分析了互联网业务成长阶段,得出互联网业务尤其是宽带业务具有很好的增长前景的结论,并定量预测出未来互联网业务、宽带业务的增长趋势。
According to analyze and study to logistic requirement characters , the dissertation proposes the forecast method that is classifying , pruning , forecasting and deciding . finally , the dissertation discusses design of distribution system . distribution business can be classified as foreground process and background process according to their characters 通过对多品种小批量产品物流需求特征的研究，提出了一套系统的预测方案：首先确定各类产品的预测方法；然后对需要进行定量预测的产品进行剪枝以去掉需求不规律的产品；接着对各个产品采用指数平滑法进行预测计算；最后根据预测的结果进行决策。
