Chapter 2 and chapter 3 analyzed the change of world honey production and trade , the distribution of apiculture production and trade structure of international honey market . linear increase model and the method of " revealed " comparative advantage was adopted respectively in forecasting world honey output and comparing competitive ability of main honey export countries 第二章和第三章实证分析了世界蜂蜜总产量与贸易量的变迁，世界蜂业的产地分布和世界蜂蜜市场的贸易结构，采用线性增长模型对世界蜂蜜总产量进行了定量预测，采用“显示”比较优势法等方法对主要蜂蜜出口国的竞争力进行了比较。
This paper firstly introduces the primary contents of forecasting , summarizes common forecasting methods and means of both quality and quantity , discusses the theoretical and practical research evolvement of grey forecasting and evaluating , analyzes the pretreatment of fundamental data sequence according to the primary procedure of forecasting , specifies the contents of grey forecasting and evaluating theory , and then carries into execution the application research on the base of the science and technology index data of jiangsu province 本文介绍了预测理论的基本内容，并对常用的定性定量预测方法和理论进行了简要介绍，重点讨论了灰色预测评价理论和实践的研究进展，进而按照预测工作的基本程序分析了基础数据序列的预处理方法，介绍了灰色预测评价理论的基本内容，并结合江苏省科技综合实力体系的数据进行了应用研究。
In order to make china shipping agency longkou know well her direction of the future development , determine the strategic aim , and achieve the goal of boosting up the economic benefits , this essay is written . the article analyses and investigates the situation of the company itself and the factors that affect the market of the shipping agency . it put forward the strategic points and concrete steps of the company ' s future development by analyzing the result of forecast and the strategic mode 本文以龙口中海船务代理有限公司的经营发展为主要研究内容，结合中国加入wt0 ，海运市场进一步开放的需要，对公司自身状况和影响船代市场的主要因素进行了调查，运用计量经济学的方法，对龙口地区船代市场的发展进行了定量预测，并以此为基础对龙口中海船务代理有限公司经营发展的目标和模式进行了研究，提出了公司未来的经营发展策略及具体应对措施。
In this paper , a set of medium - and - long - range hydrologic forecast models were established for predicting water regime in shanghai , including three hydrological series , annual rainfall and rainfall during flood season for one representative station and annual maximum water tide level at huang - pu park . the prediction models includes two parts . one is quantitative ones which are mainly studied in the paper , including ar ( p ) , gm ( l , l ) , modified gm ( 1 , 1 ) and threshold ar modeling ; the other is markov chain qualitative modeling 研究分两个方面，一是定量预测，是本论文的主要研究内容，共建立了四个预测模型，分别是ar ( p )模型、 gm ( 1 ， 1 )模型、改进gm ( 1 ， 1 )模型及tar模型；其二是建立了马尔柯夫定性预测模型，给出分级预测结果。
Under the guidance of synthetic information theory , the authors have quantitatively appraised the three types of gold deposits in the area using the method of logical information , that is , remelted - magmatic hydrothermal , syntecnic magmatic hydrothermal and volcanic sub volcanic hydrothermal gold deposits . 12 regions are predicted to be most perspective 在综合信息成矿理论的指导下，对岩浆重熔热液型金矿、岩浆同熔热液型金矿床以及火山一次火山热液型金矿床利用逻辑信息法进行了定量预测，总共预测出12个最有远景的区域。
Time series method is a newly - developed quantitative method for prediction and yields satisfactory results in the analysis of economic time series in which the involved factors are too many and the relationships between them are too complicated , leading to the application of theory - based quantitative predicting methods unworkable 时间序列分析方法是最近发展起来的定量预测方法，它特别适用于经济时间序列，因为经济现象涉及因素较多，关系又比较复杂，因此难以用量化的唯理模型进行预测分析。
The death rate of individuals in dongwenquan population shows another pattern with slowly raise along with the age . 3 with the use of the dispersal index ( di ) clump intensity ( ci ' s ) mean crowding ( m * ) patchiness index ( pai ) . . green ' s index ( gi ) and intensity index as parameters , we further studied the spatial distribution patterns of the three populations ， chtoran ， hoidesyaog )种群结构与动态研究3 、用leshe矩阵模型定量预测三个种群未来20a的数量与年龄结构变化的结果显示，北温泉绪云卫矛种群数量在未来4a内会有一定程度的减少，以后的种群数量逐渐增加，呈不断扩大的趋势，而这其中幼龄个体所占的比例越来越大，老龄个体的比例越来越小。
On the basis of qualitative analysis , this chapter carries out quantitative forecast to the amount of chinese monitor markets in 2003 to 2007 years and the speed of growth in the next 5 years , and forecasts the structure of monitor own brand and oem market , and further carries out quantitative forecast to the structure of products , channel , region , vertical market and parallel market 在定性分析的基础上，本章对2003 2007年中国显示器市场的总量及未来5年的增长速度进行了定量预测，并对显示器自有品牌和oem市场的结构进行了预测，进一步对产品、渠道、区域、垂直市场和平行市场的结构进行了定量预测。
Liner regression with virtual variable stands as the main method of quantitative analysis method in this article . internal port capacity is also be analysed in order to match the port throughputs prediction . finally , the whole development strategy of longkou port is the central idea of this thesis 本文的定量预测主要采用英国分析法，即回归分析法对龙口港总吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量进行了预测，并对相应的港口战略能力进行了分析研究，以求达到龙口港港口战略能力和外界对港口的吞吐量需求量之间的最佳均衡。
Then , a forecast of land use structure in following ten years with markov method is a feasible method , and the land use structure of kunshan city will continue the trend of building land continual increasing while the cultivated land continual decreasing in the following ten years 结果表明，在编制土地利用规划时，利用马尔柯夫过程对土地利用结构进行定量预测是一种可行的方法；未来10年昆山的土地利用结构将保持建设用地持续增加、耕地持续减少的趋势，但其变动幅度将逐渐趋向平稳。
