Once the model solution is determined , the optimal schedule plan as well as schedule risk of this schedule plan will be determined too . it is useful for the decision of risk optimal schedule plan and provides an evidence for schedule risk management 通过对模型的求解,实现了在制订风险最优进度计划的同时,完成对项目的进度风险评估,为风险最优进度计划的制订提供了决策支持,并为进度风险管理提供了参考。
In this paper , monte carlo ( mc ) method is used in the research of distributing of construction duration and computation of time parameter of pert network . according to probability viewpoint , critical line and key degree of activity in the network are also defined . aiming at the limitation of application of the mc in large scale the network , the simplified computational method for the network is presented with quantum probability theory and composite method of path in network 本文用mc ( montecarlo )方法研究了施工工期的分布规律和pert ( programevaluationandreviewtechnique )网络的时间参数的计算；用概率论的观点定义了pert网络主导线路和关键度；针对大型施工进度网络mc方法应用的局限性，采用线路合成方法，引进当量概率概念，提出了pert网络的简化计算方法；根据工程搭接施工网络的特点，将其转化为广义pert网络，探讨了其施工进度风险的计算。
Srabpi integrates three sequential processes of classical schedule risk analysis method , namely project schedule planning , project schedule risk assessment , and project schedule risk management planning , into one process , which avoids the same difficulties as above and reveals the idea of system optimization Srabpi实现了进度计划制订、进度风险评估和进度风险管理计划制订这三个经典进度风险分析中原本为顺序关系的过程的集成分析,较好避免了前述经典进度风险分析方法的普遍性问题,体现了系统优化的思想。
Firstly , the degree of the development of project management and risk management , the explanation of the importance of project risk management , and the expatiation of the theory and method of project schedule plan , the status of project schedule risk evaluation and the development and application of simulation technique are introduced in this paper . then the advantages and disadvantages of simulation technique and program evaluation and review technique for evaluating the schedule risk of project are apart listed in the paper , and that the theory and method of monte carlo method is discussed emphatically in the paper . finally the method for evaluating the schedule risk of project by creating monte carlo simulation model with the software excel is presented in the paper , which includes modeling , simulating , counting , testing and evaluating , and makes the complex and hard quantitative analysis work - risk evaluation easy and convenient , the result of evaluation more precise and credible 本文首先介绍项目管理和风险管理的发展状况，说明项目风险管理的重要性，阐述项目进度计划的理论和方法、项目进度风险评价的现状以及模拟技术的发展和应用，然后对比分析模拟法和计划评审技术在评价项目进度风险时的优劣，并着重探讨用蒙特卡罗法进行风险评价的理论和方法，最后提出在计算机软件excel上建立蒙特卡罗模拟模型对项目的进度风险进行评价的思路和模型，并在excel上建立一套完整的进行项目进度风险评价的实现步骤和方法，包括建模、模拟、统计、检验和评价，使风险评价这一复杂困难的定量分析工作变得简单方便，而且使其结果更加准确可靠。
This paper is an application research on evaluating the schedule risk of project by monte carlo method with the software excel . therefore it has certain reference value for the research and practice of project schedule risk evaluation , especially for the risk evaluation of the project whose work times are random 本文是通过计算机软件excel来实现蒙特卡罗模拟技术在项目进度风险评价方面的一次应用研究，因此它对项目进度风险评价的研究和实践具有一定的参考价值，尤其是在评价活动时间为随机型项目的进度风险时，它具有相当的参考意义和经济价值。
For example , it is difficult to ensure the reasonability of schedule risk analysis object and topn schedule risk factors , the optimization of schedule plan is always broken by schedule risk management measures , and few researches fully considered activity iteration and overlapping in r & d project . to solve these problems , this thesis takes schedule risk analysis process integration as guidelines , presents a r & d project schedule risk analysis method based on process integration ( srabpi ) , which provides a new way and new methods for schedule risk analysis of r & d project . the main contents and fruits of this thesis are outlined as follows : firstly , srabpi idea is presented and srabpi framework is constructed from several aspects such as body , connotation , processes , methods , management organization , and relations between srabpi and project risk management 本文针对经典进度风险分析方法中存在的进度风险分析对象的合理性难以保证、 topn进度风险因子选择难和进度风险管理措施影响进度计划最优性等普遍性的问题,综合考虑研发项目活动迭代和重叠等特点,以进度风险分析的过程集成为指导思想,研究提出一套基于过程集成的研发项目进度风险分析( srabpi )方法,为研发项目进度风险分析提供了新的途径和新方法,论文的研究内容和主要贡献如下:首先,提出研发项目srabpi思想并从主体、内涵、过程、方法、组织管理及其与项目风险管理的关系等多个方面构建了srabpi框架。
